For all the angst over China's economic slowdown, there are few signs of any marked deterioration in the nation's job market.
The official gauge is as steady as ever, a new survey-based unemployment barometer is also holding up, and the government's measure of job listings versus seekers suggests there's plenty of work for those who want it.
Other measures are less rosy, with employment sub-gauges in purchasing managers indexes and a privately compiled ratio of positions-to-applicants all showing some deterioration.
Leaders of the world's biggest labour force have repeatedly said they can tolerate fluctuations in economic growth so long as the employment market holds up. While the latest data taken together show some fraying around the edges, a shrinking working-age population and strength in services hiring have kept unemployment from breaking out, allowing policymakers to keep support measures targeted and press ahead with reforms.
"The job market deteriorated slightly in the last quarter or two, but there's no sign the situation is out of control," said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in Hong Kong. "That's why the government is still reiterating that it will refrain from large-scale stimulus."
Still, policy makers have already cut interest rates six times in the past year, added fiscal support, and expanded a government-backed bond-swap program to help relieve indebted provincial authorities.
Given the lack of one definitive reading on the jobs picture, economists must scratch a little deeper.
Here's what they'll see: Official Measures Largely Stable China's official gauge - the urban registered unemployment rate- has stayed between 3.9% and 4.3% for at least 13 years. The 4.05% reading in the third quarter was almost exactly the same as the last five years, even though economic growth during the same period slowed from about 10% to around 7%.
One reason the measure doesn't move: it excludes more than 200 million migrant workers, the most marginal in the jobs market and often first to be fired in a slowdown.
The monthly survey-based unemployment rate is emerging as a more accurate barometer, but it's only been released sporadically since last year. Sometimes that's done in speeches by officials, sometimes by state media, and sometimes at press briefings.
The rate in October was "little changed" from the 5.2% in September, Xu Xianchun, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview at a conference in Beijing on Saturday. That's up from August's 5.1%, which was also the level for most of last year.
Premier Li Keqiang has said the surveyed rate should be a key gauge to advise policy making. The NBS has expanded the survey to 65 cities from 31 cities, and will continue to extend it to about 120,000 households in some 300 prefecture level cities.
The authority will probably start a regular monthly release from March next year, Xu told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
Click Here To Register For Free Trial Services OR Give A Missed Call : +6531581402 Follow Us On Twitter : www.twitter.com/epicresearchsg Like Us On Facebook : www.facebook.com/EpicResearchSingapore Need Any Assistance Feel Free To Mail Us at : info@epicresearch.sg
The official gauge is as steady as ever, a new survey-based unemployment barometer is also holding up, and the government's measure of job listings versus seekers suggests there's plenty of work for those who want it.
Other measures are less rosy, with employment sub-gauges in purchasing managers indexes and a privately compiled ratio of positions-to-applicants all showing some deterioration.
Leaders of the world's biggest labour force have repeatedly said they can tolerate fluctuations in economic growth so long as the employment market holds up. While the latest data taken together show some fraying around the edges, a shrinking working-age population and strength in services hiring have kept unemployment from breaking out, allowing policymakers to keep support measures targeted and press ahead with reforms.
"The job market deteriorated slightly in the last quarter or two, but there's no sign the situation is out of control," said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in Hong Kong. "That's why the government is still reiterating that it will refrain from large-scale stimulus."
Still, policy makers have already cut interest rates six times in the past year, added fiscal support, and expanded a government-backed bond-swap program to help relieve indebted provincial authorities.
Given the lack of one definitive reading on the jobs picture, economists must scratch a little deeper.
Here's what they'll see: Official Measures Largely Stable China's official gauge - the urban registered unemployment rate- has stayed between 3.9% and 4.3% for at least 13 years. The 4.05% reading in the third quarter was almost exactly the same as the last five years, even though economic growth during the same period slowed from about 10% to around 7%.
One reason the measure doesn't move: it excludes more than 200 million migrant workers, the most marginal in the jobs market and often first to be fired in a slowdown.
The monthly survey-based unemployment rate is emerging as a more accurate barometer, but it's only been released sporadically since last year. Sometimes that's done in speeches by officials, sometimes by state media, and sometimes at press briefings.
The rate in October was "little changed" from the 5.2% in September, Xu Xianchun, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview at a conference in Beijing on Saturday. That's up from August's 5.1%, which was also the level for most of last year.
Premier Li Keqiang has said the surveyed rate should be a key gauge to advise policy making. The NBS has expanded the survey to 65 cities from 31 cities, and will continue to extend it to about 120,000 households in some 300 prefecture level cities.
The authority will probably start a regular monthly release from March next year, Xu told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
Click Here To Register For Free Trial Services OR Give A Missed Call : +6531581402 Follow Us On Twitter : www.twitter.com/epicresearchsg Like Us On Facebook : www.facebook.com/EpicResearchSingapore Need Any Assistance Feel Free To Mail Us at : info@epicresearch.sg
0 comments:
Post a Comment