Thursday, January 28, 2016

Fed's nod to global risks lowers chance of March rate increase

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues have opened the door to a change in their outlook for the economy this year, and possibly a slower pace of interest-rate hikes that would make a move in March less likely.

“The Fed is really in a wait-and-see mode,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “They want to see if everything in the global economy and financial markets is really going to bleed through and affect inflation and their outlook for the economy.”

The meeting was a tricky communications challenge for the Federal Open Market Committee. US central bankers had to acknowledge dimming expectations of global growth that have resulted in a sharp stock market sell-off while avoiding a definitive directional hint on the timing of the next rate increase. After all, it is only six weeks since they raised rates for the first time in almost a decade.

The FOMC said Wednesday it is “closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” while “assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook” in their statement after a two-day meeting in Washington.

That was a soft back-pedal from December when they said risks were “balanced,” and some economists said it makes an interest-rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in March less likely, while not precluding it. The FOMC left the target for their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5%.

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