Saturday, January 23, 2016

Time to pull the trigger?

It was just two years ago when Keppel ( Valuation: 2.40, Fundamental: 1.30) and Sembcorp Marine ( Valuation: 1.80, Fundamental: 1.10) were the proud captains of a thriving US$10 billion industry.

Back then, oil prices were at lofty levels of over US$100 a barrel and demand for the deepwater jack-up drilling rigs both companies excelled at building was on the rise.

Over the past year, however, things have quickly gone downhill amid growing evidence that the global supply of oil is exceeding demand.

In fact, Keppel and Sembcorp are now trading below their book values of $6.13 and $3.19 a share, while SembMarine is hovering close to its book value of $1.43 a share.

Could the moment be approaching to take a gamble on these stocks? Are things likely to get worse before they get better? How long would it take for oil prices and offshore exploration activity to pick up? What is the risk of further downside?

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