Wednesday, February 24, 2016

US housing strong; weak consumer confidence clouds outlook

 US home resales unexpectedly rose in January, reaching a six-month high, in the latest sign that the economy remains on firmer ground despite slowing global growth and tightening financial market conditions.

The housing market strength was echoed by other data on Tuesday showing a solid rise in house prices in the year to December. But the economic outlook was tempered by a fall in consumer confidence this month amid a stock market rout.

"The housing recovery continues, but the sharp drop in consumer confidence could be a sign that consumers are becoming anxious about their economic plight as the fallout from global growth concerns filters through to Main Street," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales increased 0.4% to an annual rate of 5.47 million units, the highest level since July. January's sales pace was also the second highest since 2007.

Sales rose strongly in the US Northeast, despite a massive snowstorm in late January, and were also up in the Midwest. They were unchanged in the South and fell 4.1% in the West, likely reflecting tight inventories and hefty home price gains.

Economists had forecast home resales decreasing 2.9% to a pace of 5.32 million units last month. Existing home sales were up 11% from a year ago, the largest year-on-year gain since July 2013.

A separate report showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7% in December on a year-over-year basis, with some of the biggest gains coming from cities in the West. Prices rose 0.8% in December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis.

"These are solid growth numbers that continue to tell a story of a very healthy market coming into the important spring season. Not too hot, not too cold, just right," said Stephen Phillips, president at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices in Irvine, California.

The housing reports added to retail sales, industrial production and employment data in suggesting the economy regained some momentum after slowing to a crawl in the fourth quarter.

Economists raised their first-quarter gross domestic product estimates by at least one-tenth of a%age point to as high as a 2.4% annual pace after the existing home sales data. The economy grew at a 0.7% rate in the fourth quarter.

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