Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Modi rebuts analysts who doubt India's world-beating growth

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered a wide-ranging rebuttal to critics who say he’s gotten lucky with low oil prices.

Loan growth has picked up, corporate rating upgrades are now outpacing downgrades, foreign direct investment hit a record last year and some key manufacturing sectors such as carmakers are growing rapidly, Modi said at an event organized by Bloomberg LP in New Delhi on Monday. The focus is now on clean energy, farm incomes and creating jobs, he said.

"Obviously there are some who find that difficult to digest and come up with imaginative and fanciful ideas to belittle that achievement," Modi said. "The fact is that India’s economic success is the hard-won result of prudence, sound policy and effective management.”

Nearly two years since a landslide election win, Modi is battling criticism that India’s 7.6 percent annual expansion is thanks to crashing global oil costs, which help shrink deficits and curb inflation in the $2 trillion economy. He’s also trying to strike a balance between pleasing investors who want faster economic reforms and winning rural votes before this year’s state elections.

Several economists including those at HSBC Holdings Plc and Deutsche Bank AG -- as well as Modi’s political opponents -- have said that India’s economic expansion masks underlying weaknesses. Deutsche’s Taimur Baig pointed to a record 15-month drop in exports, falling factory output and lower corporate earnings to question the data, while HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari said the surge is likely to fade once oil prices stabilize.

Modi’s two years in office have belied expectations of big-bang reforms that came after his election win. He has failed to push through a goods-and-services tax that would create a single market among India’s 1.3 billion people, dropped a proposal to make it easier to acquire land and kept in place powers to retroactively tax companies. India’s stocks, bonds and currency are among Asia’s worst performers this year.

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