Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Slide in China reserves seen easing, yet dam-bust still a risk

China is set to report a further easing in pressure on its foreign-exchange reserves in March, a shift that's been helped by a hearty dose of good luck in the form of a weaker greenback.

While authorities have stemmed a record tide of departing money with stricter currency rules and repeated statements they don't want a big devaluation in the yuan, there's little sign yet that the appetite among Chinese investors to diversify abroad has been sated.

And the central bank's embrace of liquidity injections may result in an increase in pressure for funds to leave the country.

China has been one of the emerging-market beneficiaries of the US Federal Reserve's dialed-back outlook for interest-rate increases, underscored by Chair Janet Yellen's remarks last week.

After an estimated US$1 trillion ($1.35 trillion) in funds left China in 2015, recent months have shown diminishing pressures.

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