Friday, April 8, 2016

Yen surge turns 105 per dollar into next intervention flashpoint

If there’s one thing yen bulls and bears can agree on, it’s that the threshold for currency intervention is drawing nearer -- and could be as close as 105 per dollar.

Both Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Shusuke Yamada, who predicts the yen could climb another 8% this year, and Nomura Securities Co.’s Yunosuke Ikeda, who sees an 11% drop, say 105 is the level where policy makers would consider stepping in to sell. The yen jumped as high as 107.67 on Thursday, the strongest since before the central bank expanded monetary stimulus in October 2014, despite repeated efforts by officials to talk it down. It was at 108.31 per dollar as of 8am in Tokyo on Friday.

While analyst opinions differ on how successful intervention would be, what’s clear is that officials’ jawboning has so far failed to slow the yen’s advance. The currency’s 12% jump since the end of January is the biggest after the Zambian kwacha and undermines Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to stoke inflation. It also puts his pledge this week to avoid “arbitrary” intervention to the test less than two months before he hosts the leaders of the Group-of-Seven countries.

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