Anyone looking for a narrative within the median forecasts might be stumped. With oil strengthening, shouldn’t the stock market look stronger? Does the median call on the S&P 500 point to investor awareness that stocks are overpriced, or does it suggest that margins are being squeezed by a stronger dollar, which could make continued robust hiring less likely?
Oversupply — of liquidity, cheap debt and cheap labor — has “broken down” the traditional connections between some indicators, Greene said. Increasing market volatility as central bankers bump up against the limits of monetary policy, she added.
Hoffman points out another quirk of the survey: “The range always has some outliers, some of whom confess they do it just to be provocative.” One unnamed bear’s forecast told a grim story: a 0.30% yield on the 10-year, oil at $11.50, and a 40% decline in the S&P 500 along with a jobless rate at 7.9%.
Some shared their forecasts with MarketWatch, discussing some of the major themes they think will drive the economy over the coming year.
Amy Cutts, chief economist for Equifax, thinks the 10-year note will yield 1.50% in one year, while the price of a barrel of oil slips to $42 but the S&P 500 rises to 2424.Click Here To Register For Free Trial Services OR Give A Missed Call : +6531581402 Follow Us On Twitter : www.twitter.com/epicresearchsg Like Us On Facebook : www.facebook.com/EpicResearchSingapore Need Any Assistance Feel Free To Mail Us at : info@epicresearch.sg
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